Climate Change and Its Impact on Coffee Cultivation

The coffee plant depends heavily on stable climatic conditions and thrives only within a narrow range of temperature and rainfall patterns. However, climate change is increasingly shifting these conditions (1): rising temperatures, changing rainfall seasons, and more frequent extreme weather events are affecting growth, yield, and the quality of coffee beans. At the same time, warmer climates encourage the spread of pests and plant diseases, further complicating production (2).

Arabica and Robusta respond differently to climatic changes, but both are strongly affected. Arabica grows best at temperatures between 15 and 24 °C. Temperatures above 24 °C cause stress to the plant and can significantly damage it. Robusta is more heat-tolerant than Arabica and grows ideally at 22 to 28 °C, but it is more sensitive to lower temperatures. Both species also depend on a specific annual rainfall pattern, including periods of low precipitation or relative dryness. Even small deviations from these optimal conditions can directly reduce yield and quality (3).

Current research shows that these ideal growing conditions are already changing and will continue to shift in the future. By 2050, climate change could reduce the land suitable for coffee cultivation worldwide by more than half. At the same time, global demand for coffee continues to rise. Much of this pressure falls on smallholder farmers and their families, whose livelihoods depend directly on coffee cultivation (1).

Green coffee beans affected by drought (left) and those without drought damage (right).

Wild and hybrid coffees for a climate-resilient coffee sector

Did you know that of more than 130 known Coffea species worldwide, only two are commercially used—Arabica and Robusta? The limited interest in wild coffee species puts many of them at high risk of extinction. At the same time, these species could play a crucial role in adapting coffee cultivation to climate change. Their genetic traits are essential for scientists to develop climate-resilient coffee varieties(5).

Some wild coffee species—such as Excelsa or the recently rediscovered Stenophylla coffee—offer not only interesting flavor profiles but also greater tolerance to drought, making them potential alternatives to Arabica and Robusta (6).

References (1) Bunn, C., Läderach, P., Ovalle Rivera, O., & Kirschke, D. (2015). A bitter cup: Climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee. Climatic Change, 129(1–2), 89–101. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1306-x (2) Pham, Y., Reardon-Smith, K., Mushtaq, S., & Cockfield, G. (2019). The impact of climate change and variability on coffee production: A systematic review. Climatic Change, 156(4), 609–630. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02538-y (3) Magrach, A., & Ghazoul, J. (2015). Climate and Pest-Driven Geographic Shifts in Global Coffee Production: Implications for Forest Cover, Biodiversity and Carbon Storage. PLOS ONE, 10(7), e0133071. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0133071 (4) Grüter, R., Trachsel, T., Laube, P., & Jaisli, I. (2022). Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change. PLOS ONE, 17(1), e0261976. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261976 (5) Davis, A. P., Chadburn, H., Moat, J., O’Sullivan, R., Hargreaves, S., & Nic Lughadha, E. (2019). High extinction risk for wild coffee species and implications for coffee sector sustainability. Science Advances, 5(1), eaav3473. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav3473 (6) Davis, A. P., Kiwuka, C., Faruk, A., Walubiri, M. J., & Kalema, J. (2022). The re-emergence of Liberica coffee as a major crop plant. Nature Plants, 8(12), 1322–1328. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-022-01309-5